The latest iteration of March Madness has been great. That is largely a product of the way this tournament is organized, selected, and broadcasted (please don’t change it!). We’ve also had a real fine experience when we get down to the actual performances, but the 2024 Men’s Basketball NCAA Tournament feels a bit like that supporting character in a teen drama series that has a troubled past or a rough upbringing that we keep rooting for and become pleasantly surprised with on occasion, but they keep reverting back to their villainous ways.
In less unnecessarily analogous terms, “it’s had it’s ups and downs”. We’ve had the blowouts, and snooze fests, and Izzo in March, followed by some really dominant upsets. We’ve had fun stories of lesser programs to cheer for (Oakland, Grand Canyon, Duquesne) that were very quickly put in their place. We saw some really tight finishes (102-100 in regulation??), and when we got down to the Sweet 16, we felt we were really on our way to seeing the top teams go head-to-head for the right to be called the best.
Then Jamal Shead went down, Clemson happened for some reason, North Carolina North Carolina-ed, and Duke Duked. What we are left with is a true mixed bag. There’s the defending champion who has been dominant all year long, there’s the program on the rise that never would have thought this was their year, and the underdog that turned it on at the right time for an unprecedented hot streak. Then we have the most compelling arc of all, the redemption from last year’s embarrassing first round exit at the hands of a 16-seed.
There are certainly storylines… I guess what I’m trying to say, in the production that is College Sports, the “bad boy” March Madness just convinced our protagonist, College Football, to expand their playoff to 12 teams…
And now, our cast:
UConn
Here we are again… As the season wore on, it became obvious that UConn wasn’t going to give us any reason to believe they were not going to repeat as National Champions. After winning six straight games by an average of 20 points (and no less than 13) in last year’s tournament, UConn has not skipped a beat on their way to this year’s Final Four. The Huskies, who lost their two leading scorers from 2023—Adama Sanogo and Jordan Hawkins—along with starter Andre Jackson, and role players Joey Calcaterra and Nahiem Alleyne, have kicked it into another gear this time around, outscoring their four March Madness opponents by an average of 27.75 (!) points per game.
Watching the defending champions dismantle opponents with ease all tournament long, especially when they already have 5 NCAA titles to their name, would normally frustrate basketball friends everywhere enough to slam the “Hater” button, but I just don’t get that impression in this instance. Not only is the moniker “UConn” synonymous with college basketball, this team is also incredibly likeable and fun to watch. Tristen Newton —a transfer in 2022 from East Carolina—runs the show as the scrappy point guard, who also happens to have a ton of skill, size, and athleticism. Sophomore big-man Donovan “Cling Kong” Clingan stands at 7’2 and will absolutely shatter a backboard at some point in his basketball career, and it may well be on defense. Combine those stars with a healthy mix of returning role players, talented freshmen, and a madman in Dan Hurley at head coach, and you’ve got a hell of a basketball team.
Somehow, the man that has pushed this team from great to elite, is Rutgers transfer Cam Spencer. With tons of experience, a flare for the dramatic, and an incredible shot, the Maryland-native has proven to be exactly what Connecticut needed to take a solid team who made a great run, to an absolute powerhouse. His scoring ability brings a strong piece to the table for the Huskies, and his energy and attitude seems to hold the group together.
What it all boils down to: I won’t say that UConn has had an easy path to the Championship the last two years, but they have avoided 1-seeds and 2-seeds so far. This season they handled a “happy to be here” Stetson program, a satisfied Northwestern bunch, and a San Diego State team that showed signs of failure and imperfection through much of the regular season, in a rematch of last year’s title game. Then the Huskies used a 30-0 run to dispose of Illinois, who were coming off their first Sweet 16 appearance in 19 years. They get another bit of a pass (famous last words) in the 4-seed Alabama next, who have struggled on defense and against top opponents all season long.
All signs point to another UConn championship, and it likely won’t be the Huskies who stop themselves. If anyone is going to stop UConn from cutting down the nets for the sixth time in 25 years, they’re going to give an unbeatable effort on their own side of the fence. Here’s who Connecticut will have to look out for…
Alabama
It has been an odd year for the Crimson Tide. Last year’s #1 overall seed lost some major talent heading into this season, highlighted by freshman phenom Brandon Miller. They reloaded with some relative unknowns in Hofstra transfer Aaron Estrada, Grant “Kip Dynamite” Nelson from North Dakota State, and former Cal State Fullerton stand out Latrell Wrightsell, in addition to bringing back Ohio transfer Mark Sears, who would become the eventual star of the team.
The constant here is Nate Oats, who has become inevitable at this point. The former Buffalo coach took over in Tuscaloosa and has quickly solidified himself as one of the top minds of the game, making his first four NCAA Tournaments since entering the SEC. He’s become the added boost that Alabama needs to make those “Way too Early” power rankings even with underwhelming rosters.
Still, the Tide stumbled out of the gate, boasting a tough non-conference schedule, but an 8-5 record heading into conference play. However, the metrics (remember when we had to dissect that stuff?) loved them all year, never falling below #17 in the NET rankings and remaining in the Top 10 all season after December 18th. They play no defense, yet have one of the most electric offenses in the country, leading Division I in scoring, in fact. This reigned true in the Round of 64 as they allowed 96 points to Charleston in a comfortable victory, and eventually came back around in a barnburner against #1 seed North Carolina. But this season couldn’t possibly be the year for Alabama could it, after all they lost in the offseason?
What it all boils down to: Alabama has their work cut out for them against UConn. But if there is any team in America that can get hot and hang 100 against anyone, it’s the Crimson Tide. Oats has done a fine job restructuring this roster to feature a lot of guys who have played plenty of college ball, both at Alabama and elsewhere. At the end of the day, it’s a “make shots” game, and boy can these guys make shots.
NC State
Ah yes, our underdog, our Cinderella, a lowly little school in Raleigh, North Carolina from the Atlantic Coast Conference. Yes it sure is difficult to call the 11-seeded Wolfpack a “Cinderella” given their 2 National Championships, 4 Final Fours, and their 2024 ACC Tournament title, but this team really did come out of nowhere. Despite Novice Opinion featuring NC State in their “2024 Just Early Enough Bracket Predictions” as a 9-seed, and famously holding on to them in the tournament as late as January 16th, this team seemingly came out of nowhere.
An underwhelming non-conference schedule with losses to supposed tournament teams in BYU, Ole Miss, and Tennessee, the Pack weren’t getting much attention, and never really did after a 9-11 ACC showing. Then they found some magic switch somewhere for an unprecedented run of 9 wins in 19 days. Trust me, there were NO SIGNS of this anywhere.
But we should have seen this coming when we looked at the roster in the preseason and saw a fun and electric foursome in transfers DJ Horne, and Jayden Taylor, along with returning starters Casey Morsell and, of course, D.J. Burns, the man no one can get enough of. I hate to be like everyone else and pound him into your heads with no mercy but…
Burns is indescribably extraordinary. It’s not even that he’s a guy that can torch you for 30 points (which he can do), and can score from anywhere on the floor (exactly one three-pointer made in his career). He simply should not be able to play like he does. D.J. is a massive man above the waist at 6’9 260 lbs., but has footwork like a professional figure skater. Spin moves, turnarounds, and sky hooks come to him like the morning sun. And the team doesn’t even need him.
In addition to Burns, the Wolfpack rotate in two other bigs in Mohamed Diarra and Ben Middlebrooks that can all play together. Horne has been an unsung beast during this run, and Kevin Keatts knows how to win.
What it all boils down to: Sure, we won’t be seeing any graphics informing us of NC State’s location, total enrollment, and notable alumni, but this underdog is as fun to root for as any. We’ve learned from the past few years that double-digit seeds, play-in participants, and schools with “Sister Jean” can cause serious damage in March, and at this point the seeds are thrown out the window. Keatts and his squad have a real opportunity to play for their first championship since Valvano did it 41 years ago, and their next opponent can’t possibly have a man giant enough to deal with the great D.J. Burns!
Purdue
Zach Edey is 7 feet 4 inches tall, and weighs 285 pounds according to sports-reference.com. He plays for the Purdue Boilermakers men’s basketball team, who lost to a 16-seed Fairleigh Dickinson in the first round of last year’s NCAA Tournament.
In what could be the most compelling story of all in this year’s Final Four, Purdue has a shot of pulling off the impossible feat of losing to a 16-seed one season, and then winning the National Championship the following year. From what I can tell it’s only been done once before, by Virginia in 2019. Jokes aside, this Purdue team is poised for redemption.
One could absolutely understand a program overhaul after the shocking exit in 2023, but Matt Painter did well to bring back almost all of his young team, plus Edey, and slotted in Southern Illinois transfer Lance Jones who has been an additional motor in West Lafayette (sensing a theme amongst Final Four teams?). It’s been a classic case of Freshman guards growing up, as the Braden Smith, Fletcher Loyer backcourt has gone nearly scorched earth against the 3rd toughest schedule in the country according to KenPom, aside from Purdue’s annual losses to Northwestern, Ohio State, and some combination of Rutgers and Nebraska. Add in two-time National Player of the Year, and a handful of strong role guys, and it’s no fluke that the Boilermakers are back to being one of the best teams in the country. They’ve now finally found themselves back over the hump in their first Final Four since 1980…Why not go win it all?
What it all boils down to: Hilariously, Purdue finds themselves in the Final Four, yet not out of the woods from losing to a double-digit seed in a fourth straight NCAA Tournament. That being said, the fear seems to have been replaced with total confidence, and despite a 44-year drought, the Boilers are not just “happy to be here”.
The matchup with NC State is no cakewalk, but it’s a favorable one against a team that likely won’t have an answer for Edey. If this do-over of a team doesn’t look past the Wolfpack, we could be in for an all-time classic against UConn.
Novice Predictions
Write this down for your bets or whatever. Here’s how it will shake out:
Purdue 75, NC State 68 After a free-throw contest dominates the first 12 minutes of the game, both Edey and Burns will take to the bench with 2 fouls. The game becomes a circus and Middlebrooks notches 10 points to give NC State a three-point lead at the half. Edey is slow getting back into the mix, but Braden Smith hits three straight buckets to right the ship for the Boilermakers. With the NC State defense drawn out and gassed, Edey is finally able to take over, going for 25 second half points, still just the two fouls, and zero smiles on the way to a National Championship appearance.
UConn 101, Alabama 84 This is a fast-paced, high-scoring, and well-contested game for all of four and a half minutes, as the Tide take a 12-10 lead into the first TV timeout. Then it’s all UConn as they begin scoring at will. Alabama seems to be more excited for getting the ball back, than stopping the two-man game of Newton and Clingan, who each pick up double-doubles. Coach Hurley’s son Andrew splashes a three to put the Huskies in triple digits, and slams that sticky rectangle on the giant bracket, securing a heavyweight title bout.
UConn 89, Purdue 85 OT We don’t think our ultra-dramatic prediction will be incorrect this year. A back and forth affair will leave us tied after the first half at 38, and there will be two bloody noses from physical play. Purdue will come out of the halftime with a Fairleigh large chip on their shoulder, extending a 13-point lead and leaving UConn players shellshocked. But rather than lose his mind, Dan Hurley folds his arms, and tells his boys to “just go play”. With a new found confidence, UConn scores eight straight in regulation, capped off by an improbable Cam Spencer 4-point play to send the game to overtime. Ian Eagle delivers a call so incredible we can’t even begin to fathom it yet.
Unfortunately, Zach Edey finally fouls out as a result of playing 43 minutes of basketball and still only being allowed to foul 5 times. That becomes the dagger as Stephon Castle 360-dunks on a breakaway to put the game away, while simultaneously declaring for the NBA Draft and entering the transfer portal.
We’re in for a Finale that the Hollywood scriptwriters absolutely, definitely could write.
Novice Opinion's Bracket Predictions 